Action items 7 to 9 before cops arrive

...continued from yesterday...

Seven. Never mention anything about travel while in custody. On the contrary, tell everyone you intend to stay and fight the legal charges.

Eight. If you have a criminal record already, see if you can get it expunged or pardoned. That's especially important if you have ever skipped the jurisdiction trial after getting out on bail.

Nine. If you know that the cops are after you, a strategic move might be to surrender in the morning on a business day. That way you can be brought before a judge the same day for a bail hearing. Don't surrender on a Friday, Saturday, Sunday or anytime in the afternoon on any day. Otherwise, you might spend the night or the entire weekend in jail waiting for a judge.

Actually, voluntarily surrendering is a point in your favor. It shows that you are willing to show up and prove your innocence as opposed to evading capture.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Action items 4 to 6 before cops arrive

...continued from yesterday...

Four, give your lawyer a list of relatives (including your spouse) to read to the judge. The more relatives you have in the area where you are jailed, the better your chances of being freed on bail. Also, some of them might even help put up cash bail or real estate as security for bail.

Five, maintain some friendships. Don't be a total loner. Years ago, Larry Williams was stranded in Australia when he was arrested. His assets were said to be frozen. It was rumored that his students rounded up the $750,000 bail for him.

Six, avoid hiring an antagonistic lawyer. He might annoy the prosecutor and judge, the two key people in determining whether you can get out on bail. Better to have a mild-mannered, competent lawyer who will work quietly with the prosecutor and judge to set your bail at a fair amount than someone who will use your case to promote his legal career.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Action items 1 to 3 before cops arrive

...continued from yesterday...

Here's some ideas on this matter (for education and entertainment purposes, not intended as legal advice).

First and foremost, store up some cash to pay your lawyer. Criminal lawyers traditionally get cash up front before doing any work.

By the way, "criminal lawyer" refers to an attorney who practices criminal law, not a lawyer who’s a criminal. As such, they don't have the muscle to collect accounts receivable and that's why they have to be paid in advance.

Phone some criminal lawyers in your area to find out what they charge for getting people out of jail. Last time I checked, criminal lawyers charge more depending on the gravity of the criminal charges facing the client. For example, the legal fees for getting you out of jail will be less if you're charged with $100 million worth of insider trading rather than $100 billion.

Second, buy some real estate. Judges and prosecutors are favorably inclined to let you out of jail if you can put up real estate in addition to or instead of cash as "bail." Ideally, there should be equity in the real estate (as opposed to having it fully mortgaged). The theory is that you won't run away from your real estate equity and that your real estate can't run away period.

But even if there is little or no equity in your real estate, if you own and live in your home, that's a factor in your favor that could convince a judge you won't run away. Your lawyer might persuade the judge that you have "roots in the community" because you own a home there, especially if you lived in it for many years.

Third, join some organizations including local clubs (e.g. Girl Guides, Boy Scouts, Rotary Club), religious organizations, political parties, etc. You don't have to go to all or even any meetings, you just have to belong -- more evidence of "roots in the community." Clubs that have lawyers in them are especially good to join (since judges are ex-lawyers and the judge you appear before could be an ex-member of the club).

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Fall guy for trading losses

Societe General "just discovered" that it lost $7-Billion USD. It’s blaming its loss on a low level employee. Maybe he did it and maybe he didn’t. Is he guilty or is he merely the victim of office politics?

You should be worried if you’re an employee authorized to trade anything for you company.

Here’s some information you can use as part of your Trading Plan, but don’t let your boss see it. You’ll need to implement these ideas before you get fingered, especially if you’re innocent.

Do you think you're presumed innocent until proven guilty? No way! You're going to jail before getting the chance to prove your innocence! Never mind that the onus of proving guilt rests with the prosecution and that theoretically you're "presumed innocent." That's for TV and the movies...real life is different.

In countries that follow the tradition of the former British Empire (including the USA, Canada and Australia), the rules of law allow an arrest when there is enough evidence to give the prosecutor a chance of getting a conviction. That chance may be slim, but there must be a chance.

For offences involving trading, the authorities today usually jail a suspect until his lawyer convinces a judge to let him out pending trial. Here are some things you can do to improve your chances of getting out on bail pending your trial.

By the way, the following is not intended as legal advice. Everything written here is intended only for education and entertainment purposes. Every reader should consult his or her own lawyer for advice about the matters mentioned herein.

Generally, to get you released from jail if you get arrested before being found guilty of anything, your lawyer needs to convince the court that you will show up at your trial if set free. Additionally, your lawyer must convince the court that you are not a danger to the public and that being releasing before trial would not embarrass the judicial system.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Batra & Prechter on gold

...continued from yesterday...

Gold

Batra: deflation tends to lower gold price and uncertainty tends to raise gold price. A falling US Dollar spurs inflationary expectations and therefor tends to raise the price of gold. Batra believes that as stocks crash and a recession sets in, gold could depreciate. But as the downturn becomes a depression, gold will gradually appreciate when the world economy begins to show recovery. His advice is to gradually get into gold as soon as possible. If the depression turns out inflationary, your gold holdings will soar. But if the downturn is moderately deflationary, gold will at least hold its value while most other assets will sharply depreciate.

Prechter: gold could fall during a deflation, but hold a healthy amount of gold anyway.

...back next week...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Batra & Prechter on Bonds

...continued from yesterday...

Bonds

Batra, page 171, “go with AAA corporate bonds, especially those of cash-rich companies”. He prefers municipal bonds to US federal treasury bonds. He says that a look at the past suggests that high-grade bonds generally appreciate during the first tow years of a depression, then depreciate for as long as six months before appreciating again and following the same pattern. He says sell your bonds by the presidential election …and then gradually buy AAA bonds of cash-rich companies or state and local governments in the second half the following year.

Prechter: says that generally speaking, it’s better to own high-quality short-term debt than long-term debt. The problem is ascertaining what is “high-quality” as bond ratings are not reliable.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Batra & Prechter on Stocks

...continued from yesterday...

Stocks

Batra, page 152: “stay away from investing in common stocks, and sell any that you may now own by the presidential election in November .... Note that…stocks will not drop in a straight line..but the trend would be downward, with the Dow plummeting by as much as 80 percent over two to three years.” Batra wrote that after setting aside enough liquid cash to survive the imminent depression, consider investing in put options.

Prechter’s advice: short selling could become outlawed but by the time political authorities do that, the market will have bottomed. Selling stocks short is a great idea at the onset of a deflationary depression, especially shorting banks and other financial companies. Avoid shorting defense and natural resource stocks as they could move up instead of down with the overall market. Unfortunately, there are structural risks in being in stocks during panic sell-offs.

The exchanges involved might refuse to or become incapable of processing of your orders. Some examples that occur to me are: your order might be filled but confirmation of the fill will not be given to you on a timely basis, or your broker could go bankrupt thereby delaying your right to access funds in your account, or the exchange could suspend trading for weeks or months thereby locking you into your position and exposing you to a gap-up that wipes out your account when the exchange resumes business.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Worldwide crash

Now that the spaghetti has hit the fan in terms of stock indicies worldwide, what should we do?

Luckily, I didn’t throw away the doom and gloom literature covering the last decade. Among my book collection, I found Ravi Batra’s Surviving the Great Depression of 1990 and Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash (2002). Both books, in hindsight, were premature. Maybe now with shredded spaghetti flying around worldwide, the books are more timely.

Surviving the Great Depression of 1990

Conquer the Crash

This week, I’m reviewing the two books with a view to comparing some of their advice as to “what to do now”, leaving aside their theories as to why and how much spaghetti has hit the fan.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Sensory channels

The past three items that I suggested you record in writing are three of your sensory channels, namely hearing, vision, and feelings. Other sensory channels are taste and smell. You can record those too along with time and date if you wish. They too might be useful when you consult a trading coach or psychiatrist after you’ve blown up your account.

...back next week...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Hmm, how do you feel about that?

Another influence on your trading is what you feel. Record the date and time of your feelings throughout your trading day. Later, use the date and time to co-ordinate your record of what you see and imagine with your brokerage account record of your trades.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Remember seeing that?

Another influence on your trading is what you see and imagine. Record the date and time of the things you see and imagine throughout your trading day. Later, use the date and time to co-ordinate your record of what you see and imagine with your brokerage account record of your trades.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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What were you thinking when you did that?

Did you ever put on a trade and later ask yourself in regret, “What was I thinking when I did that?”

By writing down your self-talk and thinking throughout the trading day, you can capture your answer to that question.

You’ll appreciate having a written answer to the question of “What was I thinking” after you’ve blown up your account and are seeking help from a trading coach or psychiatrist. Keep a journal in which you record the time of day, the date, and your self-talk or thoughts.

Brokerage account records usually provide you with the time and date of your orders (as distinct from the execution of your orders). You can use the time and date from those two records (the self-talk/thinking records and the order placement record) to match them up to each other.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Don't burn while trading

For exercises to get you more familiar with this method of getting a burning desire or commitment, see Tony Robbins Personal Power II.

Tony Robbins’ company is currently marketing the Personal Power audio course as part of their audio program entitled"Get The Edge"


Be aware that while you are actually placing trading orders, you don’t want a “burning desire”, just an emotional state of slight arousal at the level of 6 on a 10 point scale. Psychological research on optimal arousal levels for trading indicate that a mild state of arousal while trading leads to better performance than a highly aroused “burning desire” state. See Ari Kiev’s book, Hedge Fund Masters: How Top Hedge Fund Traders Set Goals, Overcome Barriers, and Achieve Peak Performance (Wiley Trading)

...back next week...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Advertise commitment

In the advertisement you created as suggested yesterday, include benefits you will gain. Literature on the subject are divided as to whether or not to include detriments that you will avoid. Try your ad with and without them to see what works best for you. Package them together into a 30 to 60 second clip. Run the clip at least once a day – while you’re waiting for the water kettle to boil, while you’re waiting for your computer to boot up, while you’re waiting for the elevator, etc.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Commitment through advertising

One way to get a burning desire (commitment) is to advertise in your own mind.

Make up an advertisement to run through your mind at least once a day to yourself about your commitment.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Commitment of traders

Specifically for traders, trading coach Ruth Barrons Rosevelt, in her book Exceptional Trading, wrote that “exceptional trading requires a clear and purposeful commitment.”

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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Burning desire to succeed at trading

OK, I’m back from my holiday away from blogging.

To ensure that we get off to a good start towards goals for this fresh and brand new year, let’s review some literature on goal attainment and trading success.

Success guru Napoleon Hill, in Think & Grow Rich, says that a burning desire is the starting point of all achievement.

...continued tomorrow...

Copyright 2008 Raymond T. Lee. All rights reserved.
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